*The Ideological Foundations of Salafi-Jihadist Threats in Nigeria: The Case of Lakurawa and Broader Implications for Strategic Stability and International Relations*

 _By Odaudu Ijimbli_ 

 *Abstract* 

This analysis examines the doctrinal underpinnings of threats issued by Lakurawa, an Islamist militant group affiliated with the Islamic State-Sahel Province (ISSP), against Christian communities in Nigeria. Drawing on historical and contemporary interpretations of Salafi-jihadism, it traces the evolution of such ideologies and assesses their implications for Nigeria's internal security, regional dynamics in the Sahel, and international relations. Particular attention is given to the potential extension of threats to foreign nationals of Christian affiliation residing in or visiting Nigeria, including speculative scenarios regarding state responses. The discussion underscores the interplay between local grievances and global jihadist narratives, highlighting the challenges for multilateral counterterrorism efforts.

 *Ideological Origins of Radical Islamist Threats*

The threats promulgated by groups such as Lakurawa are rooted in Salafi-jihadism, a puritanical reformist movement that seeks to emulate the practices of the earliest Muslims (al-salaf al-salih). This ideology draws from the 18th-century teachings of Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab, which emphasized tawhid (monotheism) and condemned perceived innovations in Islamic practice. Allied with medieval jurist Ibn Taymiyyah's fatwas justifying jihad against rulers deemed apostate, modern Salafi-jihadists employ takfir to excommunicate Muslims and non-Muslims alike who deviate from their strict interpretation.

Twentieth-century thinkers, notably Sayyid Qutb, radicalized this framework by conceptualizing contemporary societies as immersed in jahiliyyah (pre-Islamic ignorance), necessitating violent revolution to establish a divine order. Organizations like Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (ISIS) globalized these ideas, with ISIS's declaration of a caliphate in 2014 inspiring African affiliates. In West Africa, groups including Boko Haram and its splinter factions (e.g., Islamic State West Africa Province, ISWAP) adapted this doctrine to local contexts, framing Western education, secular governance, and religious pluralism as existential threats.

Lakurawa, emerging in northwestern Nigeria around 2017–2020 from Fulani herder communities initially positioned as vigilantes against banditry, has increasingly aligned with ISSP. Operating primarily in Muslim-majority Sokoto and Kebbi states, the group enforces Sharia through taxation, corporal punishment, and violence, while propagating anti-Christian rhetoric inherited from broader jihadist networks. Although empirical data indicate that Lakurawa's victims are predominantly Muslim locals, its ideological affiliation facilitates the framing of Christians as legitimate targets in pursuit of an expanded caliphate.

 *Lakurawa's Operational Context and Threat Profile* 

Lakurawa's activities exploit security vacuums along the Nigeria-Niger border, exacerbated by regional coups and climate-induced resource conflicts. Designated a terrorist organization by Nigerian authorities in January 2025, the group has conducted raids, imposed governance structures, and pledged bay'ah (allegiance) to ISSP. Recent U.S.-coordinated airstrikes in December 2025 targeted suspected Lakurawa/ISSP camps, reflecting heightened international concern.

While no documented attacks specifically target foreign nationals, the group's doctrinal emphasis on combating perceived infidels raises the prospect of opportunistic or deliberate actions against expatriates, particularly those identified as Christian. Nigeria hosts significant expatriate communities in sectors such as oil, telecommunications, construction, and humanitarian aid, many from Western nations with Christian-majority populations.

 *Strategic and International Relations Implications* 

Lakurawa's threats contribute to Nigeria's compounded insecurity, intertwining jihadism with banditry and ethno-religious tensions. This undermines state legitimacy, displaces populations, and hampers economic development in Africa's most populous nation. Regionally, it reinforces a contiguous jihadist corridor across the Sahel, threatening stability in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.

In international relations, the December 2025 U.S. airstrikes—framed domestically as protection against anti-Christian violence—illustrate selective interventionism. Nigeria's government has rejected characterizations of systematic religious targeting, emphasizing indiscriminate terrorism. Such divergences risk straining bilateral ties, particularly amid U.S. designations of Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern for religious freedom violations.

 *Implications for Foreign Nationals and Potential State Responses* 

Should Lakurawa or affiliated groups extend threats to Christian foreign nationals—through kidnappings, attacks on expatriate compounds, or targeted killings—the ramifications would escalate beyond domestic confines. Historical precedents in Nigeria, such as Boko Haram's abductions of Western aid workers or missionaries, demonstrate the feasibility of such actions for propaganda and ransom.

Speculatively, an attack on, for instance, American, European, or Asian Christian expatriates could prompt robust responses:

 *United States* : Given the current administration's emphasis on combating anti-Christian persecution globally, a targeted incident might trigger further unilateral military actions, evacuation operations, or sanctions. Enhanced intelligence sharing and special forces deployments could follow, akin to responses in Somalia or Syria.

 *European Union Member States* : Nations like France (with historical Sahel engagements) or the United Kingdom might advocate coordinated diplomatic pressure, travel advisories, or contributions to multinational forces under ECOWAS or UN auspices. Humanitarian and missionary organizations from Europe could face heightened scrutiny or withdrawal.

 *Other Actors* : Countries such as Canada, Australia, or South Korea, with expatriate workers in Nigeria, might issue evacuations and pursue legal accountability through international tribunals. China, a major investor, could prioritize asset protection, potentially leveraging economic influence to demand enhanced Nigerian security guarantees without framing issues religiously.

Collectively, such incidents could deter foreign investment, exacerbate Nigeria's isolation, and catalyze broader coalitions against Sahel jihadism. Conversely, they might galvanize diplomatic efforts addressing root causes, including governance reforms and climate adaptation.

 *Conclusion* 

The dogmatic origins of Lakurawa's threats lie in a transnational Salafi-jihadist paradigm that fuses puritanical revivalism with modern grievances. While primarily localized, the ideology's universalist claims pose risks to pluralistic societies, including potential spillover to foreign nationals. Effective mitigation requires integrated approaches balancing kinetic operations with socioeconomic interventions, lest unilateral actions perpetuate cycles of radicalization. Ultimately, resolving these challenges demands nuanced international cooperation respectful of Nigerian sovereignty while confronting the ideological and structural drivers of extremism.

 _Odaudu Ijimbli writes from Abuja._